The Bell Curve You Need To Understand

“The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” - John Kenneth Galbraith

In today’s email:

• The ONLY chart that matters right now 📊

• Our BOLD predictions 🔮

• a16z “B Edition” 🅱

CHART 📊

While you may be periodically “checking resistance” or the “fear and greed index,” there is really only one chart you should be paying attention to: a simple bell curve.

After analyzing thousands of wallets and tokens, there are only two factors that matter: either who is holding or how many are holding.

Crypto has developed a very basic pattern.

The memers trade the tokens that do absolutely nothing, but everyone talks about. The retail suckers typically are the ones that end up buying the memers tokens from them with some kind of moronic thesis as the reasoning. Eventually, watching it tank into the nethers once the attention audience has moved onto the next thing (and they do this quick).

The defi bros trade tokens for protocols that 99% of the world can’t comprehend how they work. Once they have ran their course, they typically dump those on retail in the same fashion that the memers do.

When you are looking for moon shots to jump on in this upcoming bull run, be mindful of the fact that the low iq and high iq are playing the game the same; don’t be caught in the middle. Trade your tokens knowing the objective is to make money.

BOLD 🔮

We are not fortune tellers, nor do we play one on TV. These are just our guesses of how we think things will pan out over the next couple of months.

ETFs - All of the MAJOR funds BTC ETFs will be approved. Ethereum ETFs will be created/approved by the same funds shortly after their BTC approvals. They are going to come in hot and cause some uptick over time pricing normies out of the market completely.

DeFi - Nothing new here - the stuff that’s good is too complex for normal people to understand and the stuff normal people can understand isn’t sexy. Tokens will moon, but user growth won’t scale too high.

NFTs - Morons will still buy them and people will still wash trade with them. As far as a value component, it’s still a big fat….

Milady should be the new “blue chip” as they are truly the only recognizable project that embodies “community”.

Gaming - Nope. Yes, tokens will run up (everything does in a bull). Be prepared to take profits if you are trading gaming tokens.

Layer 3 - Layer 3 chains will be the new NFT and/or a sophisticated version of meme coins/alts/DeFi tokens.

Overall - The big chains are going to be controlled by the BlackRock’s and Vanguard’s of the world. Memes, alts, DeFi will trade off of the “next” factor. Layer 3’s will do that even more so with the narrative of “they will be what the hedge funds want next.”

Stay safe out there in these cold crypto streets, friends. Stay smart, stay humble, and remember this is PvP.

a16z B Portfolio

Before there was the hype of hedge funds in crypto, there was a16z propping things up and dumping on retail. Previously, we had summarized all of their portfolio that starts with “A”. Below is a summary of their portfolio of projects that start with the letter “B”.

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