The 🐂 Market is Coming, Prepare Now

"The fact that people will be full of greed, fear, or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable." ~ Warren Buffett

In today’s email:

• The ETF Impact: Regardless of how much JP Morgan tries to downplay it, ETFs are a big deal.

• L2’s for Q3: How to make the right bet on Layer 2 tokens.

• NFTs are 💀: Prepare to profit in the next bull market off of NFTs.

🤖LazyAI:The daily, three minute read to keep up to date with all things AI.

THE ETF IMPACT

The Bitcoin ETF is a catalyst worth betting on

If crypto was a Vegas casino, it would be almost guaranteed I would get removed from the resort for card counting. Luckily, it is not. The predictability in this space is so simple at this point, I feel like either I am limitless or a complete moron.

Regardless of my intelligence level, financial history repeats itself infinitely and JP Morgan is downplaying the impact Bitcoin ETFs will have on Bitcoin and Crypto as a whole.

The Historical Facts

As noted in a Business Insider story all the way back in 2012, analysts at Oppenheimer Asset Management have charted how the introduction of a gold ETF in November 2004 caused a significant increase in the value of the precious metal.

John Stoltzfus and Matthew Naidorf believe the introduction of the US-traded gold ETF (GLD) on November 18, 2004, played a decisive role in its performance for the next eight years.

Before the GLD, gold prices increased by 16.84% over eight years. Meanwhile, ten-year rates declined by 33.55%. In the eight years since the ETF began trading, gold prices increased by 286.90%, while ten-year rates fell by 61.65%.

Despite the global financial crises and other macroeconomic trends in the period following 2004, Oppenheimer’s strategists believed accessibility and liquidity provided by the ETF structure have significantly contributed to the momentum of gold.

The introduction of an ETF also offered significant flexibility. Before gold ETFs, investors had limited options to access the asset, including gold mining stocks, bullion, coins, and futures contracts.

The Impact on Bitcoin

• Positive Sentiment

• Modern Storage of Wealth

• The Companies Filing for ETFs are NOT mom and pop shops

Positive Sentiment
Consumers love to trust big brands, it doesn’t matter how shady they are, they LOVE trusting large successful brands and companies. There are no larger brands in the world of finance than Blackrock, Deutsche Bank, & Fidelity. Retail will follow them after they have settled in and gathered their positions. From a common sense perspective, if these companies did not see a future in crypto, why even waste the time filing for these ETFs?

Modern Storage of Wealth
Their narrative changes publicly after a portion of their hands have been shown. While they used to downplay the “storage of value” as nothing more than something silly that retail just “didn’t understand.” We now have learned they have been slowly and quietly accumulating this entire time. Well played suits, well played indeed.

With the cat out of the bag and the storage of value narrative they will package and sell to as many of their clients as they can, the trust, faith and value will only grow over time.

The Companies Filing for ETFs are NOT mom and pop shops
Once again, Blackrock, Deutsche Bank, & Fidelity are not minuscule funds. Between the three of them they have around $15 trillion (with a T) in assets under management. Call me crazy, but one would have to assume that if the funds that control the world are taking a new asset class under management, chances are it will perform okay.

The Impact on Crypto
Sentiment matters in crypto…. a lot. The power players in the world of finance attempting to capture all of the available Bitcoin will only cause retail to chase after the next major movers. Don’t let emotions blind you, just look back historically and act accordingly.

L2’s for Q3

Layer 2’s:  A layer 2 refers to any off-chain network, system, or technology built on top of a blockchain (commonly known as a layer-1 network) that helps extend the capabilities of the underlying base layer network. Layer-2 networks can support any blockchain to introduce enhancements such as higher transaction throughputs.

TLDR: Layer 2’s are hot on Ethereum and cheaper to use.

Below is a list of three Layer 2’s that you may want to consider holding before the bull run.

Arbitrum: With over $2.14b TVL (total value locked) and over 150,000 daily active users, Arbitrum (ARB) token will be one the trades way passed the point of reason.

Comparatively … If you look at AVAX performance in the last cycle, Arbitrum is a larger user base with A LOT more going on, on chain. Currently priced at $1.12, don’t hate yourself if Arbitrum’s performance mirrors AVAX last bull in any way.

Optimism: With over 73,000 DAU (daily active users) and close ties to Coinbase (they chose Optimism for their BASE chain) Optimism is another great candidate for astronaut status.

A growing application base… and a lot of high risk/high reward DeFi products, the chain is guaranteed to attract the FOMO crowd in the bull market.

LayerZero: There is no token yet, but the launch is hype enough that the assumed value will carry over into the bull market madness.

NFTs ARE 💀

The ridiculousness of tokenized pictures is finally beginning to end. As it turns out giving people tens of millions of dollars to deliver nothing, didn’t have any value after all… weird.

While it was entertaining to watch, and a lot of peoples entrance and exit to crypto, it was overdue for the forced culture to die .

The original NFTs on Ethereum’s value didn’t stem from purchasing popularity, they had historical on chain relevance. The culture vultures in the NFT space tried to purchase their popularity and their vanity has finally caught up with them.

Their is still opportunity

The next cycle will bring action to the NFT space, it does every time (see Ether Rocks). It won’t bring volume to the bootleg anime collections like Azuki, or the pay for popularity crowd like BAYC; the volume will come to the authentic NFT collections. Will it make sense no, but I can guarantee it will happen.

Why?
The market is simple, people leave in a bear and show up in the bull like they never left. Those same people try to purchase culturally relevant JPEGs in an attempt to receive acceptance. Nothing more, nothing less.

What will they be Buying?

Milady represents the degenerate side of crypto to the core. As controversial as they can be viewed at times, they will be the “Blue Chip” in the next bull market.

If a Milady is out of your price range we recommend holding a Redacted Remilio Baby OR if you are looking for a bit of a gamble you could mint a Stupid Fock. The Stupid Fock team is creating their project now, solely to push as a “blue chip” in the bull. Awful, I know, but honest, which is why you are reading this.

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